GitLab

The college football world was hoping for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, providing plenty of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 versus the spread, including 3 fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to think so. At least in two cases.

Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a particularly popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars since Monday afternoon.

"All the cash is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."

The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market also. Bear in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the biggest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most enjoy from sharp gamblers. The Athletic talked with several bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very respected gamer."

Even though highly regarded cash has come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do just that, as public gamblers are stacking on Texas.
bit.ly
"We would love to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.

While the Texas game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We chatted with several bookmakers to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has sneaked up a little to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at most sportsbooks. The total dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I would not be amazed if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, however I presently welcome any Boise State money."

Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it desired. Are the Buckeyes prepared for vengeance?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.

So why is OSU favored?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic consulted with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this game before respected cash pressed it to the current line of -2.5. A somewhat higher bulk of wagers at several sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the money has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.

"We did take some highly regarded cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The overall has gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the greatest move of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over up until now.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp bettors, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and right away our Ohio bettors believed we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."

He did note, however, that the book had seen substantial buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
bit.ly
What caused the line turn? Put simply, the sports betting action.
bet9ja.com
Although Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
bit.ly